Thursday, May 29, 2008

Why Reliance Capital is best bet ?

Rel AMC Fy 10 AUM of 188698crs (assuming 40% CAGR ) At a valuation multiple of 6% of AUM one year forward, Rel AMC is valued at 437/share for its 95% stake. Life Insurance Third largest player by FY11. New Business Premium of Rs.75 bn in FY10, 17% margins, multiple of 20 with RelCap's stake being 95% = 984/share General Insurance Second largest player by FY10. Since i dont know how to value this business, I have considered recent valuation of Bajaj Allianz by HSBC. They valued it at Rs.2800 crs = 114/share Broking & Distribution Assuming a PAT of 300crs and a One year forward PE multiple of 15 = 183/share Consumer Finance Company's Networth of 9000 crs in FY10 = 366/share Investments Valued at 6500 crs = 264/share Total = 2348/share based on FY10E. The above valuation does not include ARC, possible foray into banking, commodity exchange.

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